Cocoa shortage, are we going to run out of chocolate?

Finitude of cocoa quantity

The amount of cocoa produced worldwide in recent years is approximately 5 million tons, according to the Swiss Platform for Sustainable Cocoa. A figure that doesn't mean much to us consumers. If it takes about a kilo of cocoa for a bar of dark chocolate, this means that world production allows for about 5 billion bars to be produced. In reality, probably more than double to account for chocolates with less cocoa. Gigantic, isn't it? Nevertheless, when related to the global population, this represents about one bar per person per year. A figure that is not so extravagant anymore.

But then, are we heading towards a shortage of cocoa and chocolate? No. The trend in recent years has been an increase in global cocoa production. Production has more than doubled in the last 20 years. However, it is not possible to rely on this dynamic to make reliable forecasts in the medium and long term.

Decreased production does not mean cocoa shortage

The effects of climate change impact many areas of agriculture, particularly in tropical environments. Cocoa cultivation is no exception. Similarly, in Africa, where the majority of cheap cocoa is produced, the aging of farmers and the lack of succession in plantations raise fears of a further drop in production.

This decrease in productivity is and will be partly offset by the emergence of new players in other countries. These initiatives are emerging either through private companies or through state support seeking to create new cocoa sectors. The fact remains that in the longer term, productivity will diminish. Even if it is difficult today to estimate what the impact on world production will be, a shortage seems unlikely in the medium term.

Should we be reassured? No, because with globalization, cocoa consumption is increasing. While some countries like Switzerland consume less, Asian markets are driving the upward trend. It is therefore likely that between increased demand and declining productivity, in the medium term, prices will rise.

Cocoa shortage, better paid producers?

The situation seems to favor better remuneration for cocoa producers. A preconceived notion that is only partly true. Indeed, the price of the stock market takes some time to be reflected on the ground. Similarly, climate and social changes will force cocoa farmers to either invest in more resilient varieties, or to increase their dependence on chemical inputs, or both. Their standard of living and the arduousness of their work will not necessarily change, quite the opposite. The root of the problem lies in our consumption of cheap cocoa, at a price dictated by large industrialists. The real price of chocolate should be very different from what we know.

MAR-2024 and MAY-2024 futures contract prices
on the London (ICE Futures
Europe) and New York (ICE Futures U.S.) markets.

Source: International Cocoa Organization, February Report

Scarcity of good cocoas

What about so-called bean-to-bar chocolates? Is their better controlled supply chain a guarantee of cocoa supply security? In the short and medium term, very probably. However, the effects of climate will impact everyone, and the global increase in the number of chocolate lovers also increases the number of bean-to-bar enthusiasts. Scarcity and demand dictate prices, which will therefore logically rise.

While the price correction effect for Western consumers will be less in the area of quality chocolate, it is highly likely that the difference for mass-market chocolates will be much greater. We will then discover what the real cost of chocolate represents. A very grim picture, but one that still leaves room for hope. Today, it is still possible to change the course of things by minimizing the impact of our activities and that of our societies on the climate. Good news: every chocolate bar counts, so eat smart!

Find the original article on Nicolas's delicious blog.