In this article, we want to share our broader vision on the topic of chocolate in 2025. Here are some ideas that are the result of our reflections, research, and discussions with key players in the chocolate industry.
The main themes of Chocolate in 2025:
1. European legislation on deforestation: European legislation aimed at prohibiting the placing on the market of products linked to deforestation was initially supposed to come into effect on December 30, 2024. However, in October 2024, the European Commission proposed to postpone this date by one year, thus setting the application of the law to December 30, 2025 for large companies, and June 30, 2026 for micro and small enterprises.
We are already seeing in producing countries that major cocoa importers are preparing for this and beginning to select more traceable cocoa. The impact on cocoa prices will therefore certainly be felt from 2025.
2. Cocoa price inflation: In 2024, the price of cocoa reached historic highs of USD 12,200 per ton. A surge of over 160% in one year.
Although the price of cocoa is difficult to predict due to its volatility, it is estimated that the price could reach up to USD 15,000 in 2025. The impact on chocolate bars is inevitable and will also affect artisan chocolatiers. The Bean-to-Bar movement is booming, but it remains a niche market (about 5% of global cocoa), and it is unfortunately highly probable that this increase in cocoa prices will lead to the disappearance of still fragile artisan players.
3. Cocoa butter and 100% bars: The cocoa price surge is even more pronounced for cocoa butter. The impact will also be negative for artisan producers, who will find it even harder to produce high-percentage bars. We could therefore see a decrease in our favorite 100% bars.
4. Injustice for producers: Highlighting the fact that cocoa producers, particularly in West Africa, do not benefit from rising prices is crucial. Systems such as the Living Income Differential (LID) and the role of certifications have their limits. Moreover, more and more chocolate multinationals are investing directly in the purchase of agricultural land, which weakens small cocoa farmer structures between 2 and 7 hectares.
More than ever, it remains crucial to support artisans, small producers, and cooperatives that ensure fair compensation for cocoa farmers, who uphold the diversity and richness of cocoa.
5. The rise of inclusions: Chocolate consumers are more open to exotic flavors and more complex aroma combinations that offer a new experience.
We have always considered that there is a gustatory interest and a unique link between cocoa, tropical plants, and fruits. In farms that practice agroforestry systems, coconuts, jackfruits, chilies, pepper (etc...) grow in symbiosis with cocoa trees. It is therefore natural to reproduce these alliances in artisanal bars. Farms such as Mashpi (Ecuador) or Theo Philo (Philippines) perfectly practice this association, demonstrating the richness and aromatic depth of their plantations.
6. The return of chocolate drinks: Late 2024 marked the return of hot chocolate! It has been the star of trendy cafes and social networks with the "nano-foaming" technique for a micro-foam that offers a soft and creamy texture. It is highly likely that this trend will continue in 2025. At Chocolats du Monde, we would rather advise you a simple preparation which is the infusion of cocoa shells, which is of course a less sweet, easy-to-prepare, economical alternative that preserves the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties of cocoa.
We wish you a sweet chocolatey year!
Jon & Sacha
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